中国—东盟金融合作网络:结构、演化及影响因素

China-ASEAN Financial Cooperation Network: Structure, Evolution and Influencing Factors

  • 摘要: 基于2000—2022年GDELT全球新闻数据构建中国—东盟金融合作网络,并运用地层约束聚类、社会网络分析和QAP回归等方法分析网络的结构、演化及影响因素,发现:中国—东盟金融合作网络受亚洲金融危机、全球金融危机和逆全球化思潮抬头等宏观环境变动影响,金融合作程度由持续上升转向波动性下降,呈现“缓慢增长”“积极融入”和“逐步调整”的阶段演化特征。中国—东盟金融合作网络存在内部不均衡、地理邻近优先和“金字塔”式程度级差的结构特征。整体网络结构日益紧密,小世界性特征愈加明显;局部网络结构趋向稳定,内部群体分化逐渐缩小;个体网络结构的各国重要性不断上升,中国、泰国、越南、马来西亚4国占据主导地位,发挥“桥梁”作用。中国—东盟金融合作网络受贸易往来程度、金融发展距离、经济邻近性、制度距离、市场化距离、语言邻近性、宗教邻近性、地理邻近性、信息化发展、交通发展和数字经济发展距离11个因素共同作用。但经济邻近性、金融发展距离和数字经济距离3个因素对中国—东盟金融合作网络仅存在阶段性影响。

     

    Abstract: Based on the 2000-2022 GDELT mass media data, this paper constructed the financial cooperation network of China-ASEAN and analyzed its structure, evolution characteristics, and influencing factors. The results indicate that: 1) The network has been influenced by macro-environmental changes such as the Asian financial crisis, the global financial crisis, and the rise of anti-globalization trends. It shows an evolution from a continuous rise to a fluctuating downward trend, reflecting "slow growth", "active integration", and "gradual adjustment" stages. 2) The China-ASEAN financial cooperation network exhibits internal imbalance, geographical priority proximity, and has a pyramid hierarchical distribution. Overall, the China-ASEAN financial cooperation network has become increasingly close with a more obvious small-world character. At the local level, internal groups have narrowed gradually. At the individual level, the importance of each country has risen. Particularly, China, Thailand, Vietnam, and Malaysia dominate the network and act as "bridges". 3) Financial development distance, degree of trade, economic proximity, institutional distance, marketization distance, language proximity, religious proximity, geographical proximity, informatization, transportation development, and digital economy distance are important factors affecting China-ASEAN financial cooperation. However, economic proximity, financial development distance, and digital economy distance have stage effects on the China-ASEAN financial cooperation network.

     

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