Study on the Evolution, Spatial Spillovers, and Influencing Factors of Macao's Economic Resilience: A Perspective from the Spatial Correlation Network in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

Economic resilience is a crucial foundation for achieving high-quality economic development in a complex and challenging external environment. Since its return to China 25 years ago, Macao has withstood multiple external shocks, demonstrating initial signs of resilience in its social and economic development, though it still faces pressure due to a singular industrial structure. This paper employs quantitative research methods such as index construction, the gravity model, and social network analysis to conduct an empirical analysis of Macao's economic resilience in the context of its involvement in the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.The study finds that as a small open economy, Macao is significantly impacted by external uncertainty shocks, and its economic resilience exhibits a pattern of fluctuating development. Under the influence of economic resilience spillovers among cities in the Greater Bay Area, Macao's centrality in the resilience network has increased but remains lower than that of other cities. Product trade and population flow within the Greater Bay Area have a significant positive spillover effect on Macao's economic resilience, while capital flows do not significantly contribute to enhancing its resilience.From the perspective of the spatial correlation network in the Greater Bay Area, Macao urgently needs to leverage the unique institutional advantages of the "One Country, Two Systems" policy to grasp the initiative in the development of a new quality productivity characterized by cooperative innovation. This would promote moderate economic diversification, mitigate and prevent external risks during growth, and consolidate the recovery to enhance urban economic resilience. In doing so, Macao may to better integrate into China's broader development agenda and contribute to high-quality modernization efforts with its distinct strengths.