地方政府投资偏好调整与企业生产率——来自地级市政府工作报告的经验证据

Local Governments' Adjustment on Investment Preferences and Enterprise Productivity: Empirical Evidence from the Work Reports of Prefectural-level Municipal Governments

  • 摘要: “消费拉动和投资拉动之争”是当前经济学界争论的一个热点问题。使用地级市投资增速目标与消费增速目标之差衡量地方政府的投资偏好,并以2013年地方官员政绩考核改革作为地方政府投资偏好调整的准自然实验,采用强度双重差分法实证分析投资偏好调整对微观企业的经济效应,发现:2013年以前地方政府存在明显的投资偏好,2013年以后发生了大幅调整;投资偏好调整提高了企业生产率,而投资消费结构、企业经营自主性和市场一体化是重要作用机制;投资偏好调整加大了财政压力,但并未显著加大经济增长压力,消费拉动是地方政府推动经济稳增长的可行之路。地方政府稳增长政策的发力点要从“投资拉动”转向“消费拉动”,坚决把稳定和扩大消费摆在扩大内需的优先位置;注重依靠市场机制推进经济稳增长,充分发挥有效市场的作用;保持适度投资规模,并不断优化投资结构。

     

    Abstract: The debate between "consumption-driven growth" and "investment-driven growth" has been a hot issue in the current economics community. This paper measures the investment preferences of local governments by the disparity between the investment growth target and the consumption growth target at the prefectural level. Taking the reform of local officials' performance assessment in 2013 as a quasi-natural experiment for the adjustment of local governments' investment preferences, this paper employs the intensity difference-in-differences (DID) method to empirically analyze the economic effects of the adjustment of investment preferences on micro-enterprises. It reveals three key insights: first, local governments had obvious investment preferences prior to 2013, which were significantly adjusted after 2013. Second, the adjustment of investment preferences has improved enterprise productivity through three critical mechanisms: the investment-consumption structure, enterprise operational autonomy, and market integration. Third, the adjustment of investment preferences did increase financial pressure, but it did not significantly increase the pressure on economic growth, while consumption-driven growth was a feasible way for local governments to promote stable economic growth. Therefore, the focus of local governments' policies for stable economic growth should shift from "investment-driven growth" to "consumption-driven growth", and resolutely implement the policy of giving priority to stabilizing and expanding consumption in the expansion of domestic demand; pay attention to promoting stable economic growth through market mechanisms and give full play to the role of an effective market; maintain an appropriate investment scale and continuously optimize the investment.

     

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