未来产业的形成与发展:基于市场逻辑的分析

The Formation and Development of Future Industries: An Analysis Based on Market Logic

  • 摘要: 未来产业的形成与发展一般受前沿技术和颠覆性技术的驱动,同时离不开必要的市场环境。技术条件既定,需求就成为影响未来产业形成和发展的关键性约束条件。未来产业具有技术前沿、爆炸式成长、成本迅速下降、市场竞争激烈、生命周期长短不一等特征,一般首先诞生于发达国家,但由于起点相同或相近,在其他国家也有机会加快发展。一般而言,未来产业不是规划出来的,应纠偏发展未来产业急功近利的做法,但可实施积极的产业政策,主要是营造有利于产业创新的发展环境和生态系统。人工智能要成为新一轮经济增长的重要引擎,必须尽快完成在物理世界的广泛应用,而需求仍然是支撑和约束人工智能产业发展的关键条件。

     

    Abstract: The formation and development of future industries are generally driven by cutting-edge and disruptive technologies, and cannot be separated from a necessary market environment. When technical conditions are given, demand becomes a key constraint on the formation and development of future industries. Future industries have industry characteristics such as technological frontier, explosive growth, rapid cost reduction, intense market competition, and varying life cycles. They usually first emerge in developed countries, but other countries also have the opportunity to accelerate their development due to similar starting points. Generally speaking, future industries are not planned into existence. Therefore, the short-sighted approach to developing future industries should be corrected. However, proactive industrial policies can be implemented, mainly to create a development environment and ecosystem conducive to industrial innovation. For artificial intelligence(AI) to become an important engine for the next round of economic growth, it must quickly complete its widespread application in the physical world. Demand remains a key condition supporting and constraining the development of artificial intelligence industry.

     

/

返回文章
返回