智能时代的就业生态韧性建构

The Construction of Employment Ecosystem Resilience in the Intelligent Era

  • 摘要: 人工智能引发的技术革命,正以系统性、非线性的方式重构全球就业生态,而传统范式已难以解释这一复杂动态。将霍林的生态韧性理论与实证研究深度融合,以适应性循环和扰沌理论的跨尺度动力学为核心分析框架,结合405份多行业问卷数据和40位政策制定者、行业从业者、专家学者的深度访谈资料,系统剖析人工智能对就业生态系统的双重影响,发现: 人工智能既是传统岗位的“瓦解者”,也是新就业形态的“赋能者”;当前就业生态面临的核心矛盾体现为韧性短板,即结构性失业加剧、技能重组滞后、多尺度循环失配等。基于此,提出包含“感知—弹性—赋能”在内的就业生态系统的韧性建构框架,旨在通过跨尺度协同干预,推动就业生态系统从“工程韧性”向“生态韧性”转型,实现高质量充分就业目标。

     

    Abstract: The technological revolution triggered by artificial intelligence is reconstructing the global employment ecosystem in a systematic and nonlinear way, and traditional paradigms have become difficult to explain the complex dynamics. This paper innovatively integrates C.S. Holling's ecological resilience theory with empirical research, taking the cross-scale dynamics of "adaptive cycles" and "panarchy theory" as the core analytical framework. It combines 405 multi-industry questionnaire responses, in-depth interviews with 40 policymakers, industry practitioners, and experts and scholars to systematically analyze the dual impact of AI on the employment ecosystem. Research has found that AI is both a "disintegrator" of traditional jobs and an "enabler" of new forms of employment. The core contradiction currently faced by the employment ecosystem is reflected in the shortcoming of resilience, namely, the intensification of structural unemployment, the lag in skill reorganization, and the multi-scale cycle mismatch, etc. Based on this, this paper proposes a resilience construction framework for the employment ecosystem that includes "perception-resilience-empowerment", aiming to promote the transformation of the employment ecosystem from "engineering resilience" to "ecological resilience" through cross-scale collaborative intervention, and achieve the goal of high-quality and full employment.

     

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