历史上的五次经济长波——基于熊彼特经济周期理论

Five Economic Long Waves in History: Based on Schumpeter's Economic Cycle Theory

  • 摘要: 康德拉季耶夫提出的长波周期假说是最早描述经济长期波动的理论。熊彼特在经济周期理论中从多个方面对长波的形成原因和运行状况进行了分析说明,认为在经济长波中技术创新是根本原因,“四阶段”模式是运动轨迹,“三周期嵌套”模式是内在循环,外部变化是影响因素。基于熊彼特经济周期理论和新熊彼特学派理论,从技术创新视角分析历史上的五次经济长波,可以发现每次长波的上升和下降都有相似之处,即长波的繁荣都由重大技术创新所推动,长波的衰退都由技术创新的衰竭所导致,而五次长波从繁荣到衰退的“拐点”也必然由股市泡沫的破裂所引发。在新一轮产业革命方兴未艾之时,特别在当前全球疫情蔓延的冲击下,中国应该提高自身技术创新能力,以在未来的发展中占得先机。

     

    Abstract: Nikolai D. Kondratieff's long wave cycle hypothesis was the first theory that described the long-term economic fluctuations. Schumpeter analyzed and illustrated the formation of long wave from multiple aspects in the economic cycle theory, believing that the technological innovation was the root cause, the four-stage model represented the track of movement, the nested pattern of three cycles indicated internal circulation, and the external change was the one of causes for economic cycle. In light of the Schumpeter economic cycle theory and the new Schumpeterian theory, the causes of five economic long waves in history are analyzed from the perspective of technological innovation. The results show that the causes of the rise and fall in all the long waves are very similar: long wave boom is driven by major technological innovation, and long wave recession is caused by failure of technology innovation, and the turning point of every long wave cycle from prosperity to recession is triggered by the burst of the stock market bubble. Therefore, as the new round of industrial revolution is in the ascendant and the COVID-19 pandemic is impacting the world economy, China must improve its ability of technological innovation so as to take the lead in the future development.

     

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