中国大豆生产自给的潜力、路径与挑战

The Potential, Path and Challenge of Soybean Production in China

  • 摘要: 大豆在中国居民饮食结构中占据重要地位,关系饲料、油脂和食用蛋白安全。在大食物观下,中国食物供求的结构性矛盾逐步显现,食物生产结构已滞后于持续升级的消费结构,突出表现为大豆供给主要依赖于国际市场,而这已成为中国粮食安全保障的风险所在。中国大豆虽然面临着单产低且增速慢、种植面积不稳定和供需结构不匹配的“三元困境”,但仍然具有一定的潜在增产空间。遵循现阶段的常规性技术发展路径提升大豆单产所带来的增产潜力有限,需要采取创新性甚至突破性的非常规手段提升单产水平,同时依靠农民积极性提升和技术创新挖掘多元耕地空间来扩大种植面积。从需求侧引导降低大豆的饲用需求也可有效缓解生产端的增产压力。但是,提单产、扩面积和调需求等增产路径都面临严峻挑战,经济成本和时间成本等可能会制约大豆增产潜力的有效释放,需要规避“运动式”的增产方式,探索长期可持续性的增产方案。

     

    Abstract: Soybean occupies an important position in Chinese diet and is related to the security of feed, oil and edible protein. Under the big food perspective, the structural contradiction between China's food supply and demand has gradually emerged. The food production structure has lagged behind the continuously upgraded consumption structure. The outstanding fact is that the soybean supply mainly depends on the international market, which has become a risk to China's food security. Although China's soybean is in the trilemma of low yield and slow growth rate, unstable planting area and mismatch of supply and demand structure, there is still a certain potential for increasing its production. The conventional technological development path for improving soybean yield has limited potential, so it is necessary to take innovative measures and even those that break through the conventional means to increase the yield. Additionally, it is necessary to rely on the improvement of farmers' enthusiasm and technological innovation to tap diversified cultivated land space to expand the planting area. And reducing the demand for soybean feed on the demand side can also effectively alleviate the pressure on the production. However, yield increase paths such as unit yield increase, area expansion and demand adjustment are all facing severe challenges. Economic costs and time costs may restrict the effective release of the potential. It is necessary to avoid "movement-style" production increase methods and explore long-term sustainable methods of increasing soybean production.

     

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