美国“新冠疫情大萧条”是2007—2009年大衰退的延续

The "COVID-19 Depression" in the US is a Continuation of the Great Recession of 2007-2009

  • 摘要: 马克思的信用理论认为,市场经济是一种信用经济,即绝大多数交易都不是现金交易,而是信用交易,从而形成庞大的债权债务链。在繁荣时期,维系债权债务链的是商业信用和银行信用;在危机时期,国家信用起到一定的缓冲作用,但大量的逾期债权债务只能靠市场出清后才能进入下一个经济周期。在美国2007—2009年大衰退中所形成的巨额逾期债权债务,不是靠市场出清的,而是靠0基准利率和购买债券方式注入巨额国家信用以支撑商业信用和银行信用的,虽然实现了长达128个月的经济增长,却难以将美联储基准利率调升到正常水平,导致股市泡沫化而酝酿着又一次危机。新冠疫情刺破股市泡沫导致“大萧条”,美联储再次采取0基准利率和无限量购买债券方式向市场注入巨额流动性,美国财政部则推出2万亿美元的经济刺激方案,在经济负增长的情况下,股市泡沫被修补并膨胀到前所未有的程度。显然,即使新冠疫情结束,形成“大萧条”的根源也仍然存在,因此,美国“新冠疫情大萧条”是2007—2009年大衰退的延续。

     

    Abstract: According to Marx's credit theory, market economy is a kind of credit economy. In the credit economy, most transactions are credit transactions, thus forming a huge chain of creditor's rights and debts. In the boom period, commercial credit and bank credit are the key factors in maintaining the credit and debt chain. In the crisis period, the national credit plays a certain buffer role, but a large number of overdue debts can only enter the next economic cycle after the market is cleared. The huge amount of overdue debts formed in the great recession of the United States in 2007-2009 was cleared not by the market but by the zero-benchmark interest rate and the purchase of treasury bonds and mortgage bonds, which injected huge amounts of national credit to support commercial credit and bank credit. As a result, though the economic growth was maintained for 128 months, it was difficult to raise the Fed's benchmark interest rate to a normal level, leading to another crisis in the stock market bubble. The COVID-19 pierced the stock market bubble and led to the "Great Depression". The US government adopted the zero-benchmark interest rate and unlimited purchase of bonds to inject liquidity, and the Treasury launched a trillion economic stimulus plan. Under the negative economic growth, the stock market bubble was repaired and inflated to an unprecedented level. Obviously, even if the vaccine can end the COVID-19 pandemic, the root cause of the "Great Depression" still exists. Therefore, the "COVID-19 Depression" in the United States is a continuation of the Great Recession of 2007-2009.

     

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