澳门回归20年博彩产业与旅游发展、国民经济的动态关系

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between Gaming Industry, Tourism Development and National Economy in the 20 Years since the Return of

  • 摘要: 澳门回归20年来国民经济发展迅速,明确未来发展思路,合理优化产业结构对澳门发展意义重大。利用澳门统计数据,建立向量自回归VAR模型,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,对澳门回归20年发展进程中“博彩—旅游—经济”的动态关系进行实证分析,研究结果表明:旅游者人数增加是博彩业发展的格兰杰原因,而博彩业对经济、旅游并未体现格兰杰关系;博彩业能短期促进经济增长和旅游人数增加,但缺乏长期效应;国民经济对博彩业的影响主要是通过宏观调控、政策指引等手段,后期国民经济的良性增长与适度多元化产业发展相关;旅游人数与国民经济的交互影响表现为冲击同频,两者呈现长期互促特征。澳门要实现经济良性增长,单靠博彩业难以维持,应遵循世界旅游中心的定位,依托优势产业,构建多元化产业体系。

     

    Abstract: Macao's national economy has developed rapidly since its return, and it is of great significance for Macao's development to clarify development ideas and rationally optimize the industrial structure. In this article, based on the statistical data of Macao, the dynamic relationship between gaming industry, tourism development and national economy in the 20 years since Macao's return are empirically analyzed by constructing a vector auto regressive model and employing impulse response function and variance decomposition. The results show that: (1) the increasing number of tourists is the Granger cause of the gambling industry development, but gambling industry has no Granger relation with economy or tourism; (2) gaming industry can promote economic growth and tourism increase in the short term, but not in the long term; (3) national economy mainly influences the gaming industry through macroeconomic regulation and policy guidance, and its benign growth in the later part of the 20 years is related to the development of diversified industries; (4) the interaction between tourist number and national economy shows the same frequency of impact, and the two factors can promote each other in the long term. Macao cannot realize benign economic increase with the development of the gambling industry alone; instead, it needs to build a diversified industrial system following the positioning of the world tourism center and relying on the advantageous industries.

     

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