东艳, 马盈盈. 疫情冲击、中美贸易摩擦与亚太价值链重构——基于假设抽取法的分析[J]. 华南师范大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, (4): 110-123.
引用本文: 东艳, 马盈盈. 疫情冲击、中美贸易摩擦与亚太价值链重构——基于假设抽取法的分析[J]. 华南师范大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, (4): 110-123.
DONG Yan, MA Ying-ying. The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic, Sino-US Trade Frictions and the Reconstruction of Asia-Pacific Value Chains——Analysis Based on Hypothesis Extraction Method[J]. Journal of South China normal University (Social Science Edition), 2020, (4): 110-123.
Citation: DONG Yan, MA Ying-ying. The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic, Sino-US Trade Frictions and the Reconstruction of Asia-Pacific Value Chains——Analysis Based on Hypothesis Extraction Method[J]. Journal of South China normal University (Social Science Edition), 2020, (4): 110-123.

疫情冲击、中美贸易摩擦与亚太价值链重构——基于假设抽取法的分析

The Impact of Covid-19 Pandemic, Sino-US Trade Frictions and the Reconstruction of Asia-Pacific Value Chains——Analysis Based on Hypothesis Extraction Method

  • 摘要: 中美贸易摩擦爆发之前,亚太生产网络密集度不断提高,分工合作较21世纪初更加深化。其中,平均距离从1.216 8下降为1.131 8,网络密度从0.727 5上升至0.818 1。从点度数、点强度、Laumas指标和特征向量中心度来看,中美是亚太生产网络的中心国家,既作为供应商为亚太其他经济体提供中间品,又作为需求者带动其他经济体的产出。对比各国GDP损失可见,中国是全球受中美贸易摩擦影响最大的国家,其中风险敞口最大的商品部门是电气电子制造业,服务部门是航空运输业。同时,中美贸易摩擦对为中国提供中间产品的亚太经济体(包括日本、韩国、中国台湾和东盟等)造成了较大的冲击。随着新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的暴发及在全球蔓延以及中美脱钩论的再度兴起,中长期来看,亚太价值链将趋于简单化和国内化,中国应当基于“一带一路”倡议和疫情带来的契机,促进国内价值链进一步发展。

     

    Abstract: Before the outbreak of Sino-US trade frictions, the Asia-Pacific production network had been expanding, and the labor division and cooperation had deepened compared with the condition in the early 2000s. Our results show that the average geodetic distance decreased from 1.216 8 to 1.131 8, and the density of Asia-Pacific production network increased from 0.727 5 to 0.818 1. On the basis of the point degree and strength, Laumas indicator and feature vector centrality, China and the United States play the hub roles in the Asia-Pacific production network, which not only provide intermediate products for other Asian and Pacific economies as suppliers, but also drive the production of other economies as demanders. Compared with the GDP losses of various countries, China is the country most affected by Sino-US trade frictions. The electrical and optical equipment industry is the commodity sector most exposed and the air transport service is the service sector most exposed. Economies that provide China with intermediate inputs, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and ASEAN, also suffer a lot. With the outbreak and spread of COVID-19 worldwide, and the resurgence of Sino-US decoupling theory, in the medium and long term, the Asia-Pacific value chain tends to be simplified and internalized. China should take the advantage of "One Belt and Road" platform and the opportunities brought by the epidemic to promote the further development of domestic value chain.

     

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