张明志, 岳帅. 中美贸易摩擦与中国对外贸易多元化[J]. 华南师范大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, (4): 124-133.
引用本文: 张明志, 岳帅. 中美贸易摩擦与中国对外贸易多元化[J]. 华南师范大学学报(社会科学版), 2020, (4): 124-133.
ZHANG Ming-zhi, YUE Shuai. Sino-US Trade Frictions and Diversification of China's Foreign Trade[J]. Journal of South China normal University (Social Science Edition), 2020, (4): 124-133.
Citation: ZHANG Ming-zhi, YUE Shuai. Sino-US Trade Frictions and Diversification of China's Foreign Trade[J]. Journal of South China normal University (Social Science Edition), 2020, (4): 124-133.

中美贸易摩擦与中国对外贸易多元化

Sino-US Trade Frictions and Diversification of China's Foreign Trade

  • 摘要: 中美贸易摩擦之所以给中国对外贸易发展带来重大的负面影响,究其根本是因为中国对外贸易的市场结构和产品结构还不够多元化,特别是对美国市场过于依赖。中美贸易摩擦通过提高贸易成本、增加贸易不确定性,引发商品贸易流向调整和生产转移效应,从而很大程度上影响了中国对外贸易多元化发展。虽然中美业已达成第一阶段经贸协议,但这并不意味着中美贸易争端得到了真正的解决。在中国人口红利几近衰竭、优惠政策边际效应不断递减、全球价值链分工几近极限的背景下,中国已经基本不存在吸引大规模外商直接投资的可能,中国对外贸易市场结构和产品结构的深刻调整势所必然。积极推动对外贸易多元化发展是当前中国经济实现高质量发展的重要动力,积极参与区域经济一体化组织、把握数字经济和信息化发展的重要机遇、重塑国内价值链并加大对技术研发的支持力度等,是拓展中国对外贸易多元化的重要着力点。

     

    Abstract: The reason why Sino-US trade frictions have a significant negative impact on the development of China's foreign trade is that the market structure and product structure of China's foreign trade are not diversified enough, especially the excessive dependence on the US market. Trade frictions between China and the United States lead to the adjustment of commodity trade flow and the effect of production transfer by increasing trade cost and trade uncertainty, which greatly affects the development of China's foreign trade diversification. Although China and the United States have reached the first stage of economic and trade agreement, this does not mean that the Sino-US trade dispute has been truly resolved. In particular, against the background that China's demographic dividend is nearly exhausted, the marginal effect of preferential policies is decreasing, and the division of labor in the global value chain is close to the limit, there is basically no possibility for China to attract large-scale foreign direct investment, which makes it inevitable for China to profoundly adjust its foreign trade market structure and product structure. Therefore, we should actively promote the diversified development of foreign trade, which is an important driving force for China's current high-quality economic development; meanwhile, we should actively participate in regional economic integration organizations, grasp the important opportunities for the development of digital economy and information technology, reshape the domestic value chain and increase the support for technology research and development, which is the important focus of the diversified development of China's foreign trade.

     

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