我国南北差距的历史演变与趋势研判

The Analysis on the Historical Evolution and the Developing Trend of China's North-South Gap

  • 摘要: 近年来,我国南北差距快速扩大问题受到社会各界的高度关注。分析可得数据发现,2021—2022年南北差距扭转了过去快速扩大的势头,南北差距的绝对水平和相对占比都有所下降。从行业看,工业和房地产业的差距缩小是南北差距缩小的主要原因;从部门看,政府财政收入、企业利润的南北差距都有所缩小,但居民收入的差距并没有缩小。结合国内外整体经济形势、省份经济表现等,我国已充分认识到南北差距扩大问题并采取措施应对,加之新冠疫情、俄乌冲突、国际通货膨胀特别是能源价格上涨、房地产市场波动等多重因素叠加,使得2021年以来南北差距有所缩小。但影响因素是短期性的,南北差距的长期趋势仍有待观察。南北差距扩大是我国区域发展格局出现的重大问题,应对南北差距扩大问题需有新思路,要发挥地区比较优势,尊重产业和人口向优势区域集中的客观规律,为重点开发地区、生态脆弱地区、能源资源地区等制定差异化开发政策,为重点生态功能区、农产品主产区、困难地区提供有效转移支付。

     

    Abstract: In recent years, the widening of the North-South gap in China has garnered significant attention across various sectors of society. However, an analysis of the latest data presented in this paper reveals a narrowing trend in both the absolute level and the relative proportion of this gap during 2021-2022, thereby reversing its previous trajectory characterized by rapid expansion. from an industrial perspective, the narrowing of the gap of industry and real estate is the main reason for the narrowing of the North-South gap; from a sectoral perspective, the gap of government fiscal revenue and corporate profits between the north and south has narrowed, but the gap of household income did not narrow. Taking into account the overall economic situation both domestically and internationally, as well as the economic performance of each province, this paper argues that since 2021, the gap between northern and southern regions in China has narrowed due to a combination of factors. These include not only countermeasures taken by the central government in response to its recognition of this widening gap but also external events such as COVID-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine conflict, fluctuations in real estate market and international inflation particularly driven by rising energy prices. However, it is crucial to comprehend that certain factors in play are of a transient nature, leaving the long-term trajectory of the North-South divide yet to unfold. The burgeoning disparity between the Northern and Southern regions represents a prominent novel concern within China's regional development paradigm. Therefore, it is imperative to generate novel concepts in order to effectively address the widening disparity between the Northern and Southern regions. It is essential to fully leverage regional comparative advantages, adhere to the objective laws governing industry and population concentration in advantageous areas, and devise tailored development policies that consider local conditions for key growth zones, ecologically vulnerable regions, as well as energy and resource-rich territories. The government should allocate efficient transfer payments to key ecological functional areas, major agricultural production regions, and economically disadvantaged areas.

     

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