新冠疫情与去全球化背景下的中国经济前景:镜鉴三次重大经济危机

The COVID-19 Pandemic and China's Economic Prospect against a De-globalization Background: With Reference to Three Major Economic Crises

  • 摘要: 历史上的三次重大经济危机——大萧条、滞涨和大衰退——可以作为新冠疫情在去全球化背景下对中国经济产生冲击的镜鉴。新冠疫情对全球经济和中国经济的影响不能孤立起来分析,必须认识到疫情发生在去全球化的历史背景下,存在着加速去全球化的可能性。因疫情而加速的去全球化趋势对中国经济而言意味着脱钩,是极端不利的。在这个意义上,疫情对经济的冲击与1929—1933年的大萧条相似,可能会带来世界经济格局重塑。中国经济应该高度警惕去全球化导致世界经济分裂成不同的体系,有必要采取重大举措,进行在意义上可与1978年改革开放相比拟的再改革再开放,维护世界经济一体化格局,推动中国经济健康发展。

     

    Abstract: The Great Depression, the Stagflation, and the Great Recession are three of the most serious economic crises in the history. They can be used as a historic context in which we analyze how COVID-19 epidemic impacts China's economy in the environment of de-globalization. The influence of the COVID-19 pandemic on the world and China's economy is not isolated from other events. Occurring against the background of de-globalization, the COVID-19 pandemic could speed up the trend of de-globalization. This trend may detach China's economy from the world economy, which is extremely harmful to the former. Like the 1929-1933 Great Depression, the COVID-19 pandemic could reorganize the world economic structure. Chinas should watch out for the possibility that de-globalization may divide world economy into separated sections. In order to avoid the unfavorable consequence, protect the current pattern of globalization and help China's economy develop healthily, it is necessary for China to initiate a second round of reform and opening comparable to that of 1978.

     

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