如何确定相对贫困标准?——兼论“城乡统筹”相对贫困的可行方案

How to Determine the Standards of Relative Poverty after 2020?—With Discussion on the Feasibility of "Urban-Rural Coordination" in Relative Poverty

  • 摘要: “相对贫困”在中国扶贫工作中是个新概念。相对贫困的内涵决定了扶贫的目标并不局限于单纯的增收,同时要关注收入分配。从绝对贫困到相对贫困的过渡,对中国未来扶贫工作的思路和手段提出了更多的要求。在城乡差距较大的阶段使用“城乡一条相对贫困线”相对贫困标准,则八成以上贫困人口仍分布在农村,弱化了城镇贫困的重要性。建议分城乡设置相对贫困标准,并将相对贫困标准设定为(分城乡)居民中位收入的40%。利用CHIP2018数据计算,城镇相对贫困线约为12 000元,贫困发生率为9%,折算得到城镇相对贫困人口约0.7亿人;农村相对贫困线约为5 000元,贫困发生率约为11%,折算得出农村相对贫困人口约0.6亿人。

     

    Abstract: "Relative Poverty" is a new concept in the poverty alleviation work of China. The connotation of relative poverty determines that the goal of poverty alleviation involves not only income increase but also income distribution. Therefore, the transition from absolute poverty to relative poverty puts forward more requirements on the working ideas and means of China's future poverty alleviation work. This article estimates the scale of relative poverty under different relative poverty standards, and proposes suggestions for setting relative poverty standards based on the actual situation in China. The conclusions are as follows. First, in the short term, the "urban-rural coordination" plan is not feasible. According to the "one line between urban and rural areas" algorithm, it is concluded that more than 80% of the poor are still distributed in rural areas, and the differences between urban and rural areas have not been fully considered. Second, it is recommended to set the relative poverty standards by urban and rural areas, taking 40% of the median income level of per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents as the baseline. The corresponding urban relative poverty line is about 12 000 yuan, and the incidence of urban relative poverty is 9%, which translates to about 70 million people in urban relative poverty; while the corresponding rural relative poverty line is about 5 000 yuan, and the incidence of poverty is about 11%, which translates to about 60 million people in rural relative poverty.

     

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