Roubini's Crisis Economics and the Great Depression in 2020
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摘要: 努里埃尔·鲁比尼的危机经济学强调，资本主义和经济危机形影相随，经济或金融危机可以预测，可以扼杀在摇篮里，可以通过彻底的改革防范和应对。基于鲁比尼的危机经济学不难看到，远比1930年代大萧条严重得多的2020年大萧条，之所以未出现1930年代大萧条那样的严重后果，并快速恢复经济增长，是由于美国政府史无前例的超宽松货币政策和大规模财政刺激政策将其扼杀在了摇篮之中，但由此也使得美国政府信用难以退出市场。美国以服务业为主体的经济结构不可能实现再工业化，因此美国霸权的衰亡是不可避免的历史趋势。Abstract: Roubini's Crisis Economics emphasizes that capitalism and economic crisis go hand in hand and the economic or financial crisis can be predicted, strangled in the cradle, and prevented and responded to through thorough reform. Based on Roubini's Crisis Economics, it is not difficult to see that the great depression in 2020, which was much more serious than the Great Depression in 1930s, did not have the serious consequences of the Great Depression of the 1930s. The US quickly restored economic growth because the government adopted the unprecedented ultra-loose monetary policy and large-scale fiscal stimulus policy and strangled the crisis in the cradle. But it has also made it difficult for the U.S. government credit to withdraw from the market. The US economic structure, which is dominated by the service industry, cannot be re-industrialized. Therefore, the decline of American hegemony has become an inevitable historical trend.
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Keywords:
- crisis theory /
- new great depression /
- inflation /
- industrial capital /
- the economic crisis
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